25 February 2007

Air Freight and Space Freight

Here is a collection of information and websites, I have gathered to
develop a business plan around Space Freight for the USA.

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Space Ports Blog
http://spaceports.blogspot.com/

FAA Commercial Space Transportation Office
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/

NASA Prediction
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/webaccess/CommSpaceTrans/SpaceCommTransSec35/CommSpacTransSec35.html

SpacePorts in the USA
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/industry/spaceports/images/spaceport_map.jpg

NASA Predicts Market a while ago:
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/webaccess/CommSpaceTrans/SpaceCommTransSec35/CommSpacTransSec35.html

Every year, an average of 2 billion people travel by air and more than
40 million tons of freight are shipped. Air freight is a significant
part of the aviation industry, with estimated total revenues of $49.5
billion in 2005. The total value of goods transported by air in 2005
is estimated to be US$3.25 trillion, equivalent to 35.6% of the
estimated US$9.14 trillion total global exports of goods. (iata.org;
http://www.iata.org/nr/rdonlyres/408082f2-4d5d-427d-9b4f-9ef020cc0142/0/air_freight_prospects_improving.pdf)

Freight operations (measured in tonnes) are expected to grow faster
than passenger operations. In 2005 freight was estimated at roughly 76
million tonnes and this number is expected to almost triple to reach
about 214 million tons by 2025 (Airports Council International, Global
Traffic Forecast 2007; http://www.speednews.com/a/aciforecast.pdf

An interesting recent analysis reaches just this conclusions—that
there are inherent risks and costs in launches that set a much higher
technical and business price floor than the assumed cost per lb. of
$100 to $400 that some predict would be needed to stimulate rapid
growth of the use of space for commercial purposes. When Physics,
Economics, and Reality Collide, Jurist, John, Dinkin, Sam, and
Livingston, David, July 2005 (draft).

Some cost reductions would be possible with an increased flight rate.
But it still remains difficult today to project any costs less than
$2,200/kg. ($1,000/lb), given that insurance, overhead, range costs,
etc. will sum to at least $1,000/lb, even before the vehicle leaves
the launch pad.
(http://www.gwu.edu/~spi/publications/NASA%20L.Vehicle%20Study%20V-5.pdf)

Ultra Low Cost Launch Vehicles A Stimulus For Turning Around the
Dramatic Decline of the U.S. Aerospace Industry
http://www.batse.msfc.nasa.gov/colloquia/abstracts_spring06/presentations/RSackheim-pres.pdf

Price Per Pound on Average
http://www.futron.com/pdf/resource_center/white_papers/FutronLaunchCostWP.pdf

Reusable Launch Vehicles Price
http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/designing_reusable_launch_vehicles_for_future_space_markets.shtml

According to NASA . . . The average cost to launch a Space Shuttle is
about $450 million per mission.

Surry of England has launched 30 or more small Sats at an average cost
of less than $10 million each. It is highly evident to many, through
market studies, business studies, etc., that if a U.S. launcher were
available in the $5 to $10 million dollar range, the U.S. satellite
market and the associated launch service business would increase by as
much as 3 to 5 times over what is currently forecasted for the next 10
to 20 years. The anticipated growth in these markets will be enabled
by the incredible growth in micro-electronic devices. This will
correspondingly enable a huge growth in highly capable,
multi-functional, micro-satellites provided that ultra low-cost
launchers become available.

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